For over a year, the story of the housing market in Ontario has been one of patient buyers, plentiful listings, and softening prices. The latest national numbers suggest that story is starting to change. According to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), home sales across the country rose again in July, the fourth monthly increase in a row, while the number of new listings continued to shrink. Slowly and quietly, the market is moving back toward balance.
Here is what the data actually says, and what it could mean for your plans in Durham Region and the GTA.
What You Need to Know
CREA’s July report, released August 18, shows national home sales up 0.5% from June. That sounds modest, but it marks four consecutive months of gains since the spring. At the same time, new listings fell 1.6% in July, their third straight monthly decline. Fewer new listings plus steadily rising sales means the balance between buyers and sellers is shifting.
Two numbers tell that story clearly. The national sales-to-new-listings ratio reached 51.3% in July, comfortably inside the 45% to 65% range that CREA considers a balanced market. And there were 4.7 months of inventory nationally, close to the long-term average of five months. CREA’s senior economist noted that markets across the country that had been in buyers’ market territory have largely shifted back into balanced conditions.
Prices are responding, gently. The national MLS Home Price Index edged up 0.1% from June, although it remains 3.3% below last July. The national average sale price was $674,819, essentially flat (up 0.2%) compared with a year ago. In short: the price declines that defined the past year appear to be levelling out, not reversing into rapid growth.
Closer to home, the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), whose reporting area includes Durham Region, described July as a month when the market “tightened.” GTA-area sales came in at 5,995, nearly even with last July (down 0.9%), while new listings dropped 17.8% year over year. The average selling price across TRREB’s market was $1,003,956, down 4.5% from a year earlier. When sales hold steady while listings fall that sharply, the extra choice buyers have enjoyed starts to thin out.
One more piece of context: the Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on July 15, its fourth straight hold, which has kept borrowing conditions stable through this shift.
What This Means for You
If you are buying: you still have more choice and more negotiating room than buyers had during the frantic markets of a few years ago. Many homes are still selling below asking, and conditional offers are back to being normal. But the window of maximum leverage may be starting to narrow. TRREB’s president put it plainly: with sales making up a larger share of listings, buyers may find there is less room to negotiate going forward. If you have been waiting for a clear “bottom,” the data suggests conditions are firming rather than softening. You can browse homes currently for sale across Durham Region to see what is available at your price point.
If you are selling: the environment is improving, but this is not 2021. A balanced market rewards preparation: accurate pricing, strong presentation, and a realistic strategy for negotiation. The encouraging news is that you are now competing against fewer new listings than sellers faced this spring, and buyer activity has increased four months running. If you are weighing a fall listing, our seller strategy page outlines how we approach pricing and preparation.
If you are a homeowner with no immediate plans: the main takeaway is stability. Prices flattening out is healthy after a long correction, and stable rates have made planning easier, particularly if a mortgage renewal is coming up in the next year.
The Marticorena Group Perspective
National and GTA-wide numbers set the backdrop, but they are averages across hundreds of communities. What I see on the ground in Durham Region is that individual markets behave differently: a well-priced detached home in Whitby can attract multiple showings in its first week while a comparable listing, priced on last year’s expectations, sits. “Balance” does not mean every home sells easily. It means the market rewards realistic pricing and punishes wishful thinking, in both directions.
It is also worth remembering that July is one month of data. Four months of rising sales is a genuine trend, but the pace of any recovery will depend on the economy, rates, and confidence this fall. The right move is not to react to headlines; it is to understand what the numbers look like on your street, for your property type, at your price point.
Key Takeaway
Canada’s housing market posted its fourth straight monthly sales gain in July while new listings fell, pushing most markets, including ours, back toward balanced conditions. Prices are stabilizing rather than falling. Buyers still have leverage, but likely less with each passing month; sellers have a firmer footing, but only with realistic pricing.
Let’s Talk About What This Means for You
If this shift has you thinking about your own plans, whether that is buying, selling, or simply understanding what your home might be worth in today’s market, I am always happy to be a resource. Reach out any time for a no-pressure conversation about what these numbers actually look like in Pickering, Ajax, Whitby, Oshawa, and across Durham Region.
Sources: Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) national statistics, July 2026, released August 18, 2026; Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) Market Watch, July 2026, released August 6, 2026; Bank of Canada, July 15, 2026 rate announcement. Market statistics are current as of publication and subject to revision. This article is general information, not individual financial, legal, or mortgage advice.
